NBA free pick tonight goes back to the well for player prop value. The massive Game 5 of the series between the Nuggets and Suns shifts back to Denver, after a controversial interaction between Nikola Jokic and the Suns owner. Tonight, the play is on the rebounding front with Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon. His current line is O/U 5.5 rebounds. Gordon has been playing big minutes for the Nuggets, including lots of time guarding Kevin Durant this series. His athleticism has proven to be important in the playoffs. Gordon averaged 6.6 rebounds/game on the season and has covered this line (having 6+) in 7 of 9 playoff games thus far. That is hitting at a 78% clip. In one game earlier this year against Phoenix he snagged 13 boards in a win at home. Gordon’s playing time has increased throughout the whole season and has maximized in the playoffs, meaning his rebound potential is even higher than the statistics show. The Suns shot miserably in the first 2 games in Denver so we expect there to be plenty of defensive rebounds up for grabs tonight (Nuggets are the #1 ranked defensive rebounding team in the NBA). With Deandre Ayton playing less minutes, things have opened up a bit down low on the glass. Gordon’s matchup with Durant is a good one for rebounding as Durant isn’t a great rebounder himself. If Gordon can steal a couple boards from Jokic’s stat line tonight, we look to cash this one easily – Take Aaron Gordon OVER 5.5 rebounds!
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