Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets 

May 9, 2023

Line: Denver -6.5, O/U 227.5

NBA free pick tonight goes back to the well for player prop value. The massive Game 5 of the
series between the Nuggets and Suns shifts back to Denver, after a controversial interaction
between Nikola Jokic and the Suns owner. Tonight, the play is on the rebounding front with
Nuggets power forward Aaron Gordon. His current line is O/U 5.5 rebounds. Gordon has been
playing big minutes for the Nuggets, including lots of time guarding Kevin Durant this series. His
athleticism has proven to be important in the playoffs. Gordon averaged 6.6 rebounds/game on
the season and has covered this line (having 6+) in 7 of 9 playoff games thus far. That is hitting
at a 78% clip. In one game earlier this year against Phoenix he snagged 13 boards in a win at
home. Gordon’s playing time has increased throughout the whole season and has maximized in
the playoffs, meaning his rebound potential is even higher than the statistics show. The Suns
shot miserably in the first 2 games in Denver so we expect there to be plenty of defensive
rebounds up for grabs tonight (Nuggets are the #1 ranked defensive rebounding team in the
NBA). With Deandre Ayton playing less minutes, things have opened up a bit down low on the
glass. Gordon’s matchup with Durant is a good one for rebounding as Durant isn’t a great
rebounder himself. If Gordon can steal a couple boards from Jokic’s stat line tonight, we look to
cash this one easily – Take Aaron Gordon OVER 5.5 rebounds!