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CHARGERS @ JAGUARS
NFL WILD CARD ROUND
January 14, 2023
5:15 PM PST
Saturday night NFL Wild Card Playoffs take center stage tonight as the Los Angeles Chargers head to Jacksonville. All eyes will be on the two young QB’s but we turn our attention to player prop value. We look to Jaguars tight end Evan Engram, who burst onto the scene late this season when he caught 11 balls for 162 yards against Tennessee.
Tonight, Engram’s props are listed at O/U 4.5 catches and O/U 41.5 receiving yards. We love the over tonight. Why? Engram has become one of Trevor Lawrence’s most trusted targets and Lawrence looks to him consistently when they need a big conversion. He ranked 4th in the NFL this season in tight end receiving yards and averaged 45 yds/game. We like the matchup as the Chargers don’t defend the tight e d position well, allowing 54.9 yards/game to opposing tight ends. There is also an underlying value. Vegas sees him catching about 4.5 passes. As he averages 10.7 yds/reception on the season this would put his yardage expectancy at 48 yards. We feel he goes for 50-60+ easily tonight with the game plan. Trevor Lawrence’s yardage prop is at O/U 245.5, which means Engram would need to secure 17% of that yardage share to cash for us tonight. He should absolutely get it done in a game that could turn into a shootout.
Ride the value tonight!
Take Evan Engram OVER 41.5 receiving yards!