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NUGGETS – PELICANS
February 2, 2023
Line: Cavs -5.5, O/U 226
We look to stay hot tonight in the NBA primetime matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Cleveland Cavaliers. The Grizzlies come in struggling (2-6 in their last 8) and face a tough Cavaliers team. Oddsmakers open the line with Cleveland favored by 5.5 points and the O/U at 226.
We are locked in on the value in the total tonight. While 226 points may seem reasonable for an NBA game in today’s era of scoring, tonight will be a slower paced defensive battle. Here’s why. Memphis is playing in a back-to-back including travel after they lost by 10 to Portland last night at home. They will be facing the #1 defense in the NBA as Cleveland allows by far the fewest PPG at 106.8/game. They allow even fewer at home. The Grizz also feature a top 10 scoring defense (#1 in opponent FG% at just 44.9%) so it should be a slug fest. Trending is also important. The under is 7-0 in the Grizzlies last 7 games, covering the under on average by 12.3 PPG! That’s a huge discrepancy. Oddsmakers continue to overestimate their point totals coming into tonight. The under is also 5-1 in the Cavs last 6 games, with total scoring averaging just 210 points/game. Cleveland is so effective at their style of play. They score with efficiency and take the whole clock to do so, averaging the fewest possessions per game in the NBA at 99.9/game. Lock this line in ASAP as it is likely to move down today.
Take Grizzlies vs Cavaliers UNDER 226 points!