Mavericks @ Suns
Line: Suns -4.5, O/U 216.5
October 19, 2022
10:00pm EST on ESPN
Value pops in the NBA western conference tonight as the Phoenix Suns host the Dallas Mavericks.
We see great value in the game total with the line currently sitting at 216.5. While both of these teams will boast good defense come playoff time, the start of the season is different. Defensive chemistry takes time to build, and teams don’t have much quality scouting on opponents. This game total is falsely deflated due to the last 7 matchups being intense playoff games where defense is at a premium relative to regular season. Look at last night’s games: Both games cashed the over easily. Plus, the intangibles MATTER tonight. Do you remember how the Suns exited last year’s playoffs? They got whooped at home in game 7 of the Western Conference semifinals by these Mavs and lost by 33 points. Players don’t forget stuff like that and take it personal. Phoenix was the 5th highest scoring team in the NBA in 2021 averaging 114 points/game. Look for MVP candidates Luka Doncic and Devin Booker to put on a show. Plus, new sixth man Christian Wood will provide a scoring boost for Dallas (averaged 18PPG last year). Phoenix will be aggressive and won’t take their foot off the gas offensively. This one will be a shootout.
There is one smart play here – Take Mavericks-Suns OVER 216.5 points!