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RAIDERS @ STEELERS
December 24, 2022
5:15 PM PST
We lock in on Christmas Eve and a slate full of NFL games with playoff implications. As the Las Vegas Raiders visit the Pittsburgh Steelers we look at the QB matchup. Oddsmakers have the Steelers favored by 2 points and Kenny Pickett’s player prop lines are O/U 185.5 passing yards and O/U 0.5 passing touchdowns.
The TDs line is heavily juiced so we find value in his yardage total. We feel oddsmakers have this line falsely deflated due to his recent concussion last week. Pickett appears to be ready to go and when healthy he can throw for 200+ easily. On the year he averages 199 passing yards/game as a rookie. His confidence has grown throughout the season and he now has great chemistry with wideouts Diontae Johnson and George Pickens. Pickett has surpassed this number (186+ yds) in 6 out of 9 games played, hitting it 75% of the time, excluding last week where he got injured after 1 pass attempt. Now look at the defense he is facing. The Raiders are horrific in pass coverage, ranking 26th in the NFL as they allow 244.3 passing yds/game to opponents. They even let Baker Mayfield throw for 230 yards 2 weeks ago when he had only been on the Rams roster for TWO days. This defense has given up 186+ passing yards in 13 of their 14 games! With a fairly simple game plan designed to protect Pickett from big hits, he should be able to have lots of easy completions and hit this number.
Take Kenny Pickett OVER 185.5 passing yards!