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LIONS @ PACKERS
January 8, 2023
5:20 PM PST
The regular season NFL finale Sunday Night is a win and in scenario for Green Bay as they face the Detroit Lions.
Where is the underlying value??
We focus on player prop value from the Packers backfield. Oddsmakers currently have RB Aaron Jones’ prop lines at O/U 60.5 rushing yards and O/U 19.5 receiving yards. Schematically speaking, it was obvious over the past few weeks that they were limiting Jones’ snaps to prevent further injury as he was dealing with ailments. With the last two weeks being all or nothing games, the Packers are maximizing their best playmaker’s touches as he looks healthy. Last week against the Vikings he went for 111 yards on the ground and will get a heavy workload tonight. Among running backs with 150+ carries this season, Aaron Jones ranks #1 in yards/rush with 5.3. This means he should clear his total with 12+ attempts tonight – no doubt he’ll get at least this many opportunities. We expect the Packers to absolutely POUND the rock tonight as they control the clock and try to dominate this game physically. The Lions rank 29th in the NFL in rushing defense as they allow 149.3 yards/game on the ground. This number increases to 165 yards/game on the road. In their last two games the opponent’s leading rusher accumulated 132 yards and 165 yards on the ground, respectively. With a falsely deflated line from their previous matchup earlier this year when the Packers struggled offensively, there is great value tonight at Lambeau.
Cash with us – Take Aaron Jones OVER 60.5 rushing yards!!