Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5, 46.5)
January 16, 2022
8:15pm EST on NBC
The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7-1) travel to Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday to play the Kansas City Chiefs (12-5) with the hopes of extending Ben Roethlisberger’s career. They are lucky to even be in this position after their playoff berth required a Colts loss AND the Chargers/Raiders to not end in a tie last week. The Chiefs had fans wondering if they were contenders after a 3-4 start to the season, but they rattled off 8 straight wins and look like a top seed once again. Vegas has the betting lines set at Chiefs -12.5 and an O/U of 46 points. Kickoff is at 8:15pm Eastern time / 5:15pm Pacific time.
These two teams just faced off in week 16 and the Chiefs ran away with the game, winning 36-10 without their top TE Travis Kelce. In that matchup, The Chiefs defense played EXTREMELY well, forcing three turnovers and limiting Roethlisberger to 159 yds passing with 1 interception. The Chiefs defense has allowed a lot of yards this season, but have really stepped it up when needed, allowing an 8th ranked 21.4 points/game. The Steelers only shot to stay in this game will be by maintaining drives with Najee Harris and the run game. The Chiefs are likely to dominate this game and are 7th in time of possession this season, with a bigger focus on running the ball.
So where is the value found? Ben Roethlisberger O/U completions is set at 24.5. Big Ben is on his way out of town in Pittsburgh and the Chiefs are going to take advantage. It is obvious what the Steelers tried to do this season with their passing game. Roethlisberger can no longer throw an accurate deep ball, so they went to the screen game. Pittsburgh had BY FAR the lowest yards/completion of any team in the NFL at 9.45 and Roethlisberger had the fewest air yards/attempt of any starting QB with just 3.4. With short passing being the Steelers only viable offense, the Chiefs will shut this down. They will force Big Ben into some terrible throws and put pressure on him since he struggles to move in the pocket. Roethlisberger averaged 24 completions/game this season and had only 23 in their week 16 matchup with the Chiefs. It is going to be a hostile environment in KC. In Big Ben’s 9 career games against the Chiefs, he has averaged 22 completions/game. This time around he’s also dealing with a strained shoulder and pectoral muscle.Look for him to really struggle.
Ben Roethlisberger UNDER 24.5 completions, LOCK IT IN!!