San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers (-5.5, 47.5)
January 22, 2022
8:15pm EST on Fox
The NFL playoffs divisional round kicks off today! Outside of picking spreads and over/unders, value can often be found in player props, especially in big games where the game plan is so important. The night game features familiar playoff teams as the San Francisco 49ers visit the frozen tundra at Lambeau Field taking on the Green Bay Packers. Kickoff is at 8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT. Aaron Rodgers has never beaten the Niners in his playoff career and looks to end that streak, in what could be his last game in a Packers uniform. The 49ers are coming off a huge playoff win in Dallas, but they had some of their key players get banged up, including QB Jimmy Garoppolo, DE Nick Bosa, and LB Fred Warner. Can they pull another upset in back to back to back weeks??
When we look at player props, one of the most interesting matchups involves Green Bay’s running back committee. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have shown huge playmaking ability this season and have rotated playing time a lot. A game with an expected temperature in single digits figures to feature a physical running game. However, 49ers defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans knows that he absolutely CANNOT let AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones get going on the ground because that opens up the Packers entire play action offense, where Rodgers has been historically good. We look to see Aaron Jones usage rate increase more than it has all season. He was banged up a lot of the year and is finally 100% healthy again. Outside of Davante Adams, he is easily the most explosive player when Green Bay has the ball. Thus, they should have him out there the majority of the time, taking away from Dillon’s potential in this matchup. In his past 9 games, AJ Dillon’s rushing yards over has gone 6-3, inflating the line coming into today.
AJ Dillon had an unproductive 6 carries for 18 yards when these two teams met in week 4 of the regular season. Aaron Jones was far more effective posting 19 carries for 82 yards and a touchdown. We look for a similar workload share for each back this week. To add to the likelihood of AJ Dillon’s struggle on the ground is how good the Niners defense is. They are 3rd in the NFL in total yards allowed and 7th in rush yards allowed. We must keep in mind when San Francisco is on offense, they will want to hold as much time of possession as possible, running the ball with Eli Mitchell and Deebo Samuel to keep the ball out of Aaron Rodgers’s hands. Look for a physical battle in Green Bay with AJ Dillon struggling to find any open running lanes.
Take AJ Dillon UNDER 39.5 rushing yds.