AL East battle highlighted by a great pitching matchup to open the series. Grayson Rodgriguez (5-2 3.53) the 2nd year phenom against Kevin Gausman (4-3 4.14) the 12 year vet who played his first 6 seasons in Baltimore.
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Orioles come into this matchup red hot, 8-2 their last 10 and they are the 2nd best road team in MLB going 16-8. Blue Jays were struggling but got right going 5-1 their last 2 series against sub-par central teams White Sox and Pirates. Orioles have had a lot of success in this division matchup going 7-1 the last 8 games in Toronto and Jays have struggled going just 6-8 their last 14 home games.
Rodriguez made 3 starts in May due to an IL stint the first few weeks and he went 1-1 3.18 ERA, his road numbers are inflated from 1 horrible start as O’s have gone 3-1 in his 4 road starts. In 3 starts vs Jays in 2023 he went 0-1 4.32 ERA with 17 K’s 5 Walks. Gausman has underwhelming results vs Baltimore going 1-3 4.61 ERA in his last 5 starts vs his former team but Blue Jays are 5-1 in his last 6 starts and each of the last 3 are quality starts as he went 2-0 2.50 ERA. He has been horrible at home this season going 1-1 6.20 ERA with opponents crushing .343 off him.
Total Statistics:
Under is 3-1 Orioles last 4 games, average of 8 runs per game.
Under is 6-1 last 7 matchups, average of 6.6 runs per game.
Over is 3-0 Jays last 3 games, average of 8.7 runs per game
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Free Prediction: Orioles Moneyline -115
We have one of the best road teams in baseball playing against a division opponent they have dominated and a pitcher who has struggled in his home ballpark.