NBA Finals Game 1 Preview and Free Bet

Mavericks Path to Finals:

Luka Doncic is on his first trip to the finals, despite battling a knee sprain through majority of playoffs. Mavs took out Clippers in the 1st round in 6 games as Luka avg 29.8 PPG 9.5 AST 8.8 REB in that series. They then went on to take out the 1 seed OKC Thunder but the role players stepped up in this series as the defensive schemes were shutting down the star Dallas backcourt. PJ Washington had 17.7 PPG 8.3 REB and Derrick Jones Jr. added 12.8 PPG in the series against OKC. Then in the WCF it was back to the star studded backcourt as Kyrie and Luka combined to average 59.4 PPG 12.8 AST 11.8 REB as they beat the Wolves in 5 games. 

Mavs are 12-5 straight up 11-6 ATS in the playoffs and have now won 5 straight road games. They were NBA best 27-14 ATS on the road in the regular season. 

The over is 9-8 in their playoff games including 4 of 5 in the WCF averaging 217 PPG. 


Celtics Path to Finals:

The NBA best 64-18 Celtics continued to look like the best team as they tore through the Eastern Conference as they look to redeem themselves from 2022 Finals. They did most of it without star center Porzingis but did have the blessing of injury ridden opponents. Derrick White was the story in the 1st round as Celtics beat Miami in 5 games (who was without top scorers Butler and Rozier). White had 22.4 ppg on 57.7% shooting. In the 2nd round they took out the Cavs in 5 games (who were without Mitchell for most of series) led by their star duo of Brown and Tatum as they combined to average 50.2 PPG 16.6 REB 9 AST. In the ECF they swept the Pacers (who missed Haliburton most of series) despite trailing late in 3 of the 4 games. The duo took it to another level in the conference finals as they combined to average 60.1 PPG 15.3 REB 9.3 AST. 

Celtics are 12-2 straight up but just 7-7 ATS in the playoffs including worse at home going 6-2 straight up (4-4 ATS). They were NBA best 37-4 at home in regular season but just 23-17-1 ATS. 

Matchup History:

Celtics have won and covered all 4 matchups from the last 2 seasons including both this season by a combined 37 points. 

The under is 7-2 last 9 meetings with an average of 220.1 PPG. 


Free Prediction: Under 216.5 

Mavs ended the season the best team in basketball going an NBA best 16-4 the last 20 games (includes a pair of losses they rested Luka/Kyrie for playoffs) and they did it with defense being the #1 defensive efficiency team and allowing 107 PPG in that stretch. They have continued that on into the playoffs.

Celtics get Porzingis back but look for it to ruin the flow of their offense in Game 1. Boston is known for their offense but they were 3rd in points allowed this season. 

Both teams had a lot of time off since the conference finals; expect rusty shooting and fresh legs showing up to play defense in a dog fight Game 1. 

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