Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs (-1, 53.5)
January 23, 2022
6:30pm EST on CBS
A trip to the AFC Championship game is on the line as the Buffalo Bills travel to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas City Chiefs. A lot of people speculate that these are the two best teams remaining in the conference and the winner is likely to be the favorite to represent the AFC in Super Bowl LVI. This is a must-see rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game. The winner will face the Cincinnati Bengals, who took down the #1 seed Tennessee Titans yesterday on a game-winning field goal. Kickoff is at 6:30pm ET / 3:30pm PT.
While the game figures to be an entertaining matchup, our goal is to find value and make money. Certain player props in this game have inherent value based on the strengths/weaknesses of each team. These two teams faced off in week 5 where the Bills dominated in a 38-20 win on the road. Josh Allen had 315 yds in the air to go along with 3 TDs while Patrick Mahomes struggled going 33-54 for 272 yds, 2 TDs and 2 huge interceptions. Since then, we have seen Kansas City cure their offensive ailments from early in the season, with Mahomes becoming more patient and willing to take what the defense gives him. This has led to prolonged offensive drives featuring screens & short passing schemes, rather than the constant deep ball/home run shot. Mahomes faces the #1 rated passing defense today as Buffalo has managed to shut down opposing QBs in the air. The Bills are #1 in the NFL in passing yds allowed, total yds allowed, and opponent pts/game.
On the season, Patrick Mahomes has hit the over on his total passing yds prop in only 6/18 games (33%). Vegas has consistently overvalued his total passing yardage. When you combine this with him going against the #1 pass defense, there is some serious value to be seen. The Buffalo Bills have allowed opponent QBs to go over their passing yardage prop ONLY two times all season. In two career starts against the Bills, Mahomes has averaged 249 passing yards, with 272 coming in their week 5 matchup. We look to see him throwing shorter passes to try and move the chains against the stingy Bills defense. Chiefs head coach Andy Reid has also incorporated the running game a lot more this season as they try to become multi-dimensional. All of this adds up to one play!