San Francisco 49ers @ Dallas Cowboys (-3, 50.5)
January 16, 2022
4:30pm EST on CBS
Two of the most storied franchises in NFL history showdown on Sunday in what is arguably the best matchup of wild card weekend. The 10-7 San Francisco 49ers travel to AT&T Stadium to take on the 12-5 Dallas Cowboys. The betting lines are currently set at Cowboys -3 and O/U 51 points. These two teams have not faced each other this season and are both poised to make a playoff run. Kickoff is at 4:30pm Eastern Time / 1:30pmPacific time.
When you look at this matchup, you realize it will be a very physical game, but both teams also have a lot of playmakers. The side of the ball to watch will be the Cowboys offense vs the Niners defense. While Dallas is in the top 10 for rushing and passing offense, San Francisco’s defense is ranked in the top 7 for stopping both categories. Each team ranks in the middle of the pack (15th and 16th, respectively) when it comes to time of possession so it should be fairly even. You can expect this game to be a battle. Each offensive coordinator loves to run the ball as their passing attacks depend on the ground game having success.
There is some underrated value when assessing player props in this game. Dak Prescott’s completions are listed at O/U 26.5. The gameplan often dictates the opportunities available for opposing players. We see the Niners going against a Dallas defense that ranks 16th in stopping the run as they average 113 yds/game. The Niners have had great success running the ball all season and have now included Deebo Samuel to work the edge. Their strategy is going to be consistent, long drives to wear down the Dallas defense and keep the ball out of Dak’s hands. Jimmy Garoppolo will get asked to be a game manager – time of possession is going to be crucial. Dallas coach Mike McCarthy has been historically conservative and that should be no different this weekend. He loves to run the ball and manage the game, which will hinder Dak’s opportunities in the air.
Prescott averaged 25.6 completions per game this season and had less than 27 completions in 10 out of his 16 games played(63% of the time). His two career games against the 49ers include an average of 20 completions/game. Combine the strategy/flow of the game with season trends and there is someobvious solid value. Take Dak Prescott UNDER 26.5 completions for a WINNER!!!