Bronocs @ Chargers
Line:  Chargers -4.5, O/U 45.5
October 17, 2022
8:15pm EST on ESPN

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2nd Free Pick will be posted two hours before kickoff.

A Monday night AFC West showdown provides both value and entertainment. We look to the Denver Broncos quarterback as he faces the Los Angeles Chargers defense.  We look to continue our hot Free Picks Run, currently 17-6 in our last 23.

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Russell Wilson’s passing yardage prop sits at 233.5 passing yards. Wilson has averaged 251 passing yards/game thru 5 games this year
and averages 235 yards/game in his career, including seasons where Seattle ran the ball the majority of the time. He’s hit this number in 3 out of 5 games while having a horrendous start to the year. He’s been constantly publicly criticized for Denver’s lack of offensive production and oddsmakers know he will pick
up the slack. The average bettor would fade Wilson after his recent struggles, but we see through that and like him facing a Chargers defense that is ranked 31st in opponent points/game. They are also 20th in opponent passing yards giving up 237 per game (with three of their games coming against the Texans,
Jaguars, and Browns). Los Angeles has played in offensive shootouts all season so far and we see Russ attempting to carve them up thru the air. With LA favored by 4.5, we should see plenty of Denver passing downs tonight. Plus, Broncos starting RB Javonte Williams is out for the year. Expect offensive coordinator Justin Outten to turn several “normal” run plays into short, easy completions which function as running the ball.

Ride the value play – Take Russell Wilson OVER 233.5 passing yards!

 

BONUS FREE PICK:  Courtland Sutton OVER 70.5 Receiving Yards

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